If we can foresee ecological collapse and the unraveling of modern Western civilization as we know it, the natural question arises: what is likely to survive?
Technology that connects us to one another and to the larger world does not seem likely to simply vanish. Nor is the complete breakdown of civil society inevitable, though in some regions it remains a distinct possibility. But those who are trying to prevent the worst consequences of climate change, biodiversity collapse, and cascading social chaos need a clearer sense of the world we are striving for.
This is where the idea of thrutopia comes in.
“The future will not be utopia or dystopia, but a messy, uneven struggle through which we may yet preserve a habitable planet.” — paraphrasing Rupert Read, Thrutopia
Thrutopia is a conceptual approach, coined by philosopher Rupert Read, that focuses on creating “route-maps” for navigating through significant societal challenges such as the climate crisis. It is not about conjuring a perfect utopia or succumbing to a bleak dystopia. Instead, it emphasizes finding practical, grounded pathways forward—ways of getting from here to there. Thrutopia underscores realistic problem-solving, collective participation, and collaborative efforts to build a livable and resilient future. It is an orientation toward resilience, imagination, and action, without the illusions of perfection or the despair of fatalism.
Beyond Reform or Revolution
In this context, the old political framing of “reform” versus “revolution” no longer makes much sense. In most parts of the world, we are already embarked on a continuum of reform, transition, and transformation. Change is happening whether we want it to or not; the real question is what shape it will take, and whether it will be guided with foresight or left to the wreckage of unplanned collapse.
Johan Rockström recently put it starkly: “We are hitting the ceiling of the biophysical capacity of the Earth system… There is no more room for incrementalism.” (TED, 2024)
Violent revolutions may still erupt under uniquely oppressive conditions, but the challenge of climate breakdown and ecological overshoot is global. Addressing it requires adaptive governance, transnational cooperation, and continuous innovation rather than periodic upheaval. We are being asked to evolve—not merely our institutions, but our sense of what human societies are for.
What Must We Leave Behind?
To frame the discussion, it is worth being blunt about what practices are simply unsustainable:
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Unlimited fossil fuel combustion — incompatible with a habitable planet.
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Industrial-scale deforestation — eliminating carbon sinks and destroying biodiversity.
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Over-extraction of groundwater and soils — undermining food security.
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Linear, wasteful production and consumption models — filling oceans with plastics and ecosystems with toxins.
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Economic systems predicated on perpetual growth — destabilizing planetary boundaries.
As Rockström and colleagues in the Planetary Boundaries framework emphasize, humanity has now transgressed six of nine safe operating boundaries for Earth. Climate change, biodiversity loss, land-use change, and biogeochemical cycles are already in the danger zone. These are not minor flaws to be tweaked; they are structural pathologies that must be outgrown. The question is not whether they will end, but how.
Uneven Transitions
What if some countries and regions change while others do not? This is already the case. The European Union has formally adopted the language of “just transition” and the “circular economy.” Some Indigenous-led communities are pioneering regenerative models that center reciprocity with ecosystems. Meanwhile, petro-states and resource-extractive economies cling desperately to the old order.
This unevenness will shape the century ahead. Adaptive, regenerative regions will likely become relative havens—attracting investment, talent, and migration—while lagging regions face intensified social and ecological stresses. Global instability is inevitable; the challenge is to create enough cooperative frameworks to prevent cascading conflict and to extend resilience wherever possible.
A Reasonable Expectation for the Century Ahead
What, then, is a reasonable expectation for life during the rest of the 21st century?
Most large-scale assessments—from the IPCC to the World Bank, from Johan Rockström’s planetary boundaries framework to national security scenarios—converge on a sobering outlook: climate disruptions will intensify, ecological systems will degrade further, and millions will be displaced.
As one commentator recently put it: “You will live to see climate collapse” (Shawn Forno, July 21, 2025). The question is not whether collapse touches our lives, but how deeply—and whether we retain agency in shaping what emerges.
But these same assessments also underscore that a habitable and even flourishing human future remains possible—if we act decisively within this decade to bend the trajectory.
The story of the coming century will not be utopia or dystopia, but a thrutopia: stumbling, adapting, experimenting, and learning our way toward a world that is more resilient and regenerative than the one we now inhabit.
Toward Pathways
This chapter sets the stage for the work ahead. What matters most is not whether we can paint the perfect end-state, but whether we can navigate the passages in front of us. Thrutopia is about wayfinding: developing the practices, alliances, and innovations that make it possible to thread the needle between collapse and regeneration.
In the chapters that follow, we will turn to the pathways that offer plausible routes toward a habitable future. Each pathway is imperfect, partial, and fraught with difficulty—yet together they form a map of possibility, guiding us through the crises of the present toward a world still waiting to be made.